thesis creep definition

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Definition of creep

 (Entry 1 of 2)

intransitive verb

Definition of creep  (Entry 2 of 2)

called also creep feeder

• bleeder [ British ]
• blighter [ chiefly British ]
• crud [ slang ]
• crumb [ slang ]
• dirtbag [ slang ]
• schmuck [ slang ]
• scumbag [ slang ]
• scuzzball [ slang ]
• sleazebag [ slang ]
• sleazeball [ slang ]
• slimeball [ slang ]
• sod [ chiefly British ]

Examples of creep in a Sentence

These examples are programmatically compiled from various online sources to illustrate current usage of the word 'creep.' Any opinions expressed in the examples do not represent those of Merriam-Webster or its editors. Send us feedback about these examples.

Word History

Verb and Noun

Middle English crepen , from Old English crēopan ; akin to Old Norse krjūpa to creep

before the 12th century, in the meaning defined at sense 1a

1818, in the meaning defined at sense 1

Phrases Containing creep

• bracket creep
• creep up on
• make someone's flesh crawl / creep
• make someone's skin crawl / creep
• make someone's skin / flesh creep
• mission creep

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Dictionary Entries Near creep

Cite this entry.

“Creep.” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary , Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/creep. Accessed 15 May. 2024.

Kids Definition

Kids definition of creep.

Kids Definition of creep  (Entry 2 of 2)

More from Merriam-Webster on creep

Nglish: Translation of creep for Spanish Speakers

Britannica English: Translation of creep for Arabic Speakers

Britannica.com: Encyclopedia article about creep

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• Cambridge Dictionary +Plus

Meaning of creep in English

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• walk The baby has just learned to walk.
• stride She strode purposefully up to the desk and demanded to speak to the manager.
• march He marched right in to the office and demanded to see the governor.
• stroll We strolled along the beach.
• wander She wandered from room to room, not sure of what she was looking for.
• amble She ambled down the street, looking in shop windows.
• crawl There'd been a bad accident on the motorway and traffic was crawling.
• trundle Lorries trundle through the narrow lanes.
• creep He crept downstairs, hardly making any noise.
• trudge They trudged wearily through the snow.
• stroll We spent the afternoon strolling around Budapest.
• amble He ambled over to the window.

You can also find related words, phrases, and synonyms in the topics:

Phrasal verbs

Creep noun ( person ).

• backhanded compliment
• bow and scrape idiom
• glad-handing
• grovellingly
• hagiographic
• obsequiously
• people pleaser
• play up to someone
• sycophantically

creep noun ( GROWTH )

• accumulative
• accumulatively
• add fuel to the fire idiom
• ratchet something up/down
• re-escalate
• re-escalation
• reach a crescendo

creep | American Dictionary

Creep verb [i always + adv/prep] ( move carefully ), creep verb [i always + adv/prep] ( move slowly ), phrasal verb, creep noun [c] ( person ), creep | business english, examples of creep, translations of creep.

Get a quick, free translation!

Word of the Day

customer support

help and advice that a company makes available to customers when they have bought something

Searching out and tracking down: talking about finding or discovering things

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• creep (PERSON)
• creep (GROWTH)
• give someone the creeps
• creep (MOVE CAREFULLY)
• creep (MOVE SLOWLY)
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Developing a Thesis Statement

Many papers you write require developing a thesis statement. In this section you’ll learn what a thesis statement is and how to write one.

Keep in mind that not all papers require thesis statements . If in doubt, please consult your instructor for assistance.

What is a thesis statement?

A thesis statement . . .

• Makes an argumentative assertion about a topic; it states the conclusions that you have reached about your topic.
• Makes a promise to the reader about the scope, purpose, and direction of your paper.
• Is focused and specific enough to be “proven” within the boundaries of your paper.
• Is generally located near the end of the introduction ; sometimes, in a long paper, the thesis will be expressed in several sentences or in an entire paragraph.
• Identifies the relationships between the pieces of evidence that you are using to support your argument.

Not all papers require thesis statements! Ask your instructor if you’re in doubt whether you need one.

Identify a topic

Your topic is the subject about which you will write. Your assignment may suggest several ways of looking at a topic; or it may name a fairly general concept that you will explore or analyze in your paper.

Consider what your assignment asks you to do

Inform yourself about your topic, focus on one aspect of your topic, ask yourself whether your topic is worthy of your efforts, generate a topic from an assignment.

Below are some possible topics based on sample assignments.

Sample assignment 1

Analyze Spain’s neutrality in World War II.

Identified topic

Franco’s role in the diplomatic relationships between the Allies and the Axis

This topic avoids generalities such as “Spain” and “World War II,” addressing instead on Franco’s role (a specific aspect of “Spain”) and the diplomatic relations between the Allies and Axis (a specific aspect of World War II).

Sample assignment 2

Analyze one of Homer’s epic similes in the Iliad.

The relationship between the portrayal of warfare and the epic simile about Simoisius at 4.547-64.

This topic focuses on a single simile and relates it to a single aspect of the Iliad ( warfare being a major theme in that work).

Developing a Thesis Statement–Additional information

Your assignment may suggest several ways of looking at a topic, or it may name a fairly general concept that you will explore or analyze in your paper. You’ll want to read your assignment carefully, looking for key terms that you can use to focus your topic.

Sample assignment: Analyze Spain’s neutrality in World War II Key terms: analyze, Spain’s neutrality, World War II

After you’ve identified the key words in your topic, the next step is to read about them in several sources, or generate as much information as possible through an analysis of your topic. Obviously, the more material or knowledge you have, the more possibilities will be available for a strong argument. For the sample assignment above, you’ll want to look at books and articles on World War II in general, and Spain’s neutrality in particular.

As you consider your options, you must decide to focus on one aspect of your topic. This means that you cannot include everything you’ve learned about your topic, nor should you go off in several directions. If you end up covering too many different aspects of a topic, your paper will sprawl and be unconvincing in its argument, and it most likely will not fulfull the assignment requirements.

For the sample assignment above, both Spain’s neutrality and World War II are topics far too broad to explore in a paper. You may instead decide to focus on Franco’s role in the diplomatic relationships between the Allies and the Axis , which narrows down what aspects of Spain’s neutrality and World War II you want to discuss, as well as establishes a specific link between those two aspects.

Before you go too far, however, ask yourself whether your topic is worthy of your efforts. Try to avoid topics that already have too much written about them (i.e., “eating disorders and body image among adolescent women”) or that simply are not important (i.e. “why I like ice cream”). These topics may lead to a thesis that is either dry fact or a weird claim that cannot be supported. A good thesis falls somewhere between the two extremes. To arrive at this point, ask yourself what is new, interesting, contestable, or controversial about your topic.

As you work on your thesis, remember to keep the rest of your paper in mind at all times . Sometimes your thesis needs to evolve as you develop new insights, find new evidence, or take a different approach to your topic.

Derive a main point from topic

Once you have a topic, you will have to decide what the main point of your paper will be. This point, the “controlling idea,” becomes the core of your argument (thesis statement) and it is the unifying idea to which you will relate all your sub-theses. You can then turn this “controlling idea” into a purpose statement about what you intend to do in your paper.

Look for patterns in your evidence

Compose a purpose statement.

Consult the examples below for suggestions on how to look for patterns in your evidence and construct a purpose statement.

• Franco first tried to negotiate with the Axis
• Franco turned to the Allies when he couldn’t get some concessions that he wanted from the Axis

Possible conclusion:

Spain’s neutrality in WWII occurred for an entirely personal reason: Franco’s desire to preserve his own (and Spain’s) power.

Purpose statement

This paper will analyze Franco’s diplomacy during World War II to see how it contributed to Spain’s neutrality.

• The simile compares Simoisius to a tree, which is a peaceful, natural image.
• The tree in the simile is chopped down to make wheels for a chariot, which is an object used in warfare.

At first, the simile seems to take the reader away from the world of warfare, but we end up back in that world by the end.

This paper will analyze the way the simile about Simoisius at 4.547-64 moves in and out of the world of warfare.

Derive purpose statement from topic

To find out what your “controlling idea” is, you have to examine and evaluate your evidence . As you consider your evidence, you may notice patterns emerging, data repeated in more than one source, or facts that favor one view more than another. These patterns or data may then lead you to some conclusions about your topic and suggest that you can successfully argue for one idea better than another.

For instance, you might find out that Franco first tried to negotiate with the Axis, but when he couldn’t get some concessions that he wanted from them, he turned to the Allies. As you read more about Franco’s decisions, you may conclude that Spain’s neutrality in WWII occurred for an entirely personal reason: his desire to preserve his own (and Spain’s) power. Based on this conclusion, you can then write a trial thesis statement to help you decide what material belongs in your paper.

Sometimes you won’t be able to find a focus or identify your “spin” or specific argument immediately. Like some writers, you might begin with a purpose statement just to get yourself going. A purpose statement is one or more sentences that announce your topic and indicate the structure of the paper but do not state the conclusions you have drawn . Thus, you might begin with something like this:

• This paper will look at modern language to see if it reflects male dominance or female oppression.
• I plan to analyze anger and derision in offensive language to see if they represent a challenge of society’s authority.

At some point, you can turn a purpose statement into a thesis statement. As you think and write about your topic, you can restrict, clarify, and refine your argument, crafting your thesis statement to reflect your thinking.

As you work on your thesis, remember to keep the rest of your paper in mind at all times. Sometimes your thesis needs to evolve as you develop new insights, find new evidence, or take a different approach to your topic.

Compose a draft thesis statement

If you are writing a paper that will have an argumentative thesis and are having trouble getting started, the techniques in the table below may help you develop a temporary or “working” thesis statement.

Begin with a purpose statement that you will later turn into a thesis statement.

Assignment: Discuss the history of the Reform Party and explain its influence on the 1990 presidential and Congressional election.

Purpose Statement: This paper briefly sketches the history of the grassroots, conservative, Perot-led Reform Party and analyzes how it influenced the economic and social ideologies of the two mainstream parties.

Question-to-Assertion

If your assignment asks a specific question(s), turn the question(s) into an assertion and give reasons why it is true or reasons for your opinion.

Assignment : What do Aylmer and Rappaccini have to be proud of? Why aren’t they satisfied with these things? How does pride, as demonstrated in “The Birthmark” and “Rappaccini’s Daughter,” lead to unexpected problems?

Beginning thesis statement: Alymer and Rappaccinni are proud of their great knowledge; however, they are also very greedy and are driven to use their knowledge to alter some aspect of nature as a test of their ability. Evil results when they try to “play God.”

Write a sentence that summarizes the main idea of the essay you plan to write.

Main idea: The reason some toys succeed in the market is that they appeal to the consumers’ sense of the ridiculous and their basic desire to laugh at themselves.

Make a list of the ideas that you want to include; consider the ideas and try to group them.

• nature = peaceful
• war matériel = violent (competes with 1?)
• need for time and space to mourn the dead
• war is inescapable (competes with 3?)

Use a formula to arrive at a working thesis statement (you will revise this later).

• although most readers of _______ have argued that _______, closer examination shows that _______.
• _______ uses _______ and _____ to prove that ________.
• phenomenon x is a result of the combination of __________, __________, and _________.

What to keep in mind as you draft an initial thesis statement

Beginning statements obtained through the methods illustrated above can serve as a framework for planning or drafting your paper, but remember they’re not yet the specific, argumentative thesis you want for the final version of your paper. In fact, in its first stages, a thesis statement usually is ill-formed or rough and serves only as a planning tool.

As you write, you may discover evidence that does not fit your temporary or “working” thesis. Or you may reach deeper insights about your topic as you do more research, and you will find that your thesis statement has to be more complicated to match the evidence that you want to use.

You must be willing to reject or omit some evidence in order to keep your paper cohesive and your reader focused. Or you may have to revise your thesis to match the evidence and insights that you want to discuss. Read your draft carefully, noting the conclusions you have drawn and the major ideas which support or prove those conclusions. These will be the elements of your final thesis statement.

Sometimes you will not be able to identify these elements in your early drafts, but as you consider how your argument is developing and how your evidence supports your main idea, ask yourself, “ What is the main point that I want to prove/discuss? ” and “ How will I convince the reader that this is true? ” When you can answer these questions, then you can begin to refine the thesis statement.

Refine and polish the thesis statement

To get to your final thesis, you’ll need to refine your draft thesis so that it’s specific and arguable.

• Ask if your draft thesis addresses the assignment
• Question each part of your draft thesis
• Clarify vague phrases and assertions
• Investigate alternatives to your draft thesis

Consult the example below for suggestions on how to refine your draft thesis statement.

Sample Assignment

Choose an activity and define it as a symbol of American culture. Your essay should cause the reader to think critically about the society which produces and enjoys that activity.

• Ask The phenomenon of drive-in facilities is an interesting symbol of american culture, and these facilities demonstrate significant characteristics of our society.This statement does not fulfill the assignment because it does not require the reader to think critically about society.

Drive-ins are an interesting symbol of American culture because they represent Americans’ significant creativity and business ingenuity.

Among the types of drive-in facilities familiar during the twentieth century, drive-in movie theaters best represent American creativity, not merely because they were the forerunner of later drive-ins and drive-throughs, but because of their impact on our culture: they changed our relationship to the automobile, changed the way people experienced movies, and changed movie-going into a family activity.

While drive-in facilities such as those at fast-food establishments, banks, pharmacies, and dry cleaners symbolize America’s economic ingenuity, they also have affected our personal standards.

While drive-in facilities such as those at fast- food restaurants, banks, pharmacies, and dry cleaners symbolize (1) Americans’ business ingenuity, they also have contributed (2) to an increasing homogenization of our culture, (3) a willingness to depersonalize relationships with others, and (4) a tendency to sacrifice quality for convenience.

This statement is now specific and fulfills all parts of the assignment. This version, like any good thesis, is not self-evident; its points, 1-4, will have to be proven with evidence in the body of the paper. The numbers in this statement indicate the order in which the points will be presented. Depending on the length of the paper, there could be one paragraph for each numbered item or there could be blocks of paragraph for even pages for each one.

Complete the final thesis statement

The bottom line.

As you move through the process of crafting a thesis, you’ll need to remember four things:

• Context matters! Think about your course materials and lectures. Try to relate your thesis to the ideas your instructor is discussing.
• As you go through the process described in this section, always keep your assignment in mind . You will be more successful when your thesis (and paper) responds to the assignment than if it argues a semi-related idea.
• Your thesis statement should be precise, focused, and contestable ; it should predict the sub-theses or blocks of information that you will use to prove your argument.
• Make sure that you keep the rest of your paper in mind at all times. Change your thesis as your paper evolves, because you do not want your thesis to promise more than your paper actually delivers.

In the beginning, the thesis statement was a tool to help you sharpen your focus, limit material and establish the paper’s purpose. When your paper is finished, however, the thesis statement becomes a tool for your reader. It tells the reader what you have learned about your topic and what evidence led you to your conclusion. It keeps the reader on track–well able to understand and appreciate your argument.

Writing Process and Structure

This is an accordion element with a series of buttons that open and close related content panels.

Getting Started with Your Paper

Interpreting Writing Assignments from Your Courses

Generating Ideas for

Creating an Argument

Thesis vs. Purpose Statements

Architecture of Arguments

Working with Sources

Quoting and Paraphrasing Sources

Using Literary Quotations

Citing Sources in Your Paper

Drafting Your Paper

Generating Ideas for Your Paper

Introductions

Paragraphing

Developing Strategic Transitions

Conclusions

Revising Your Paper

Peer Reviews

Reverse Outlines

Revising an Argumentative Paper

Revision Strategies for Longer Projects

Finishing Your Paper

Twelve Common Errors: An Editing Checklist

How to Proofread your Paper

Writing Collaboratively

Collaborative and Group Writing

Thesis Statements

What this handout is about.

This handout describes what a thesis statement is, how thesis statements work in your writing, and how you can craft or refine one for your draft.

Introduction

Writing in college often takes the form of persuasion—convincing others that you have an interesting, logical point of view on the subject you are studying. Persuasion is a skill you practice regularly in your daily life. You persuade your roommate to clean up, your parents to let you borrow the car, your friend to vote for your favorite candidate or policy. In college, course assignments often ask you to make a persuasive case in writing. You are asked to convince your reader of your point of view. This form of persuasion, often called academic argument, follows a predictable pattern in writing. After a brief introduction of your topic, you state your point of view on the topic directly and often in one sentence. This sentence is the thesis statement, and it serves as a summary of the argument you’ll make in the rest of your paper.

What is a thesis statement?

A thesis statement:

• tells the reader how you will interpret the significance of the subject matter under discussion.
• is a road map for the paper; in other words, it tells the reader what to expect from the rest of the paper.
• directly answers the question asked of you. A thesis is an interpretation of a question or subject, not the subject itself. The subject, or topic, of an essay might be World War II or Moby Dick; a thesis must then offer a way to understand the war or the novel.
• makes a claim that others might dispute.
• is usually a single sentence near the beginning of your paper (most often, at the end of the first paragraph) that presents your argument to the reader. The rest of the paper, the body of the essay, gathers and organizes evidence that will persuade the reader of the logic of your interpretation.

If your assignment asks you to take a position or develop a claim about a subject, you may need to convey that position or claim in a thesis statement near the beginning of your draft. The assignment may not explicitly state that you need a thesis statement because your instructor may assume you will include one. When in doubt, ask your instructor if the assignment requires a thesis statement. When an assignment asks you to analyze, to interpret, to compare and contrast, to demonstrate cause and effect, or to take a stand on an issue, it is likely that you are being asked to develop a thesis and to support it persuasively. (Check out our handout on understanding assignments for more information.)

How do I create a thesis?

A thesis is the result of a lengthy thinking process. Formulating a thesis is not the first thing you do after reading an essay assignment. Before you develop an argument on any topic, you have to collect and organize evidence, look for possible relationships between known facts (such as surprising contrasts or similarities), and think about the significance of these relationships. Once you do this thinking, you will probably have a “working thesis” that presents a basic or main idea and an argument that you think you can support with evidence. Both the argument and your thesis are likely to need adjustment along the way.

Writers use all kinds of techniques to stimulate their thinking and to help them clarify relationships or comprehend the broader significance of a topic and arrive at a thesis statement. For more ideas on how to get started, see our handout on brainstorming .

How do I know if my thesis is strong?

If there’s time, run it by your instructor or make an appointment at the Writing Center to get some feedback. Even if you do not have time to get advice elsewhere, you can do some thesis evaluation of your own. When reviewing your first draft and its working thesis, ask yourself the following :

• Do I answer the question? Re-reading the question prompt after constructing a working thesis can help you fix an argument that misses the focus of the question. If the prompt isn’t phrased as a question, try to rephrase it. For example, “Discuss the effect of X on Y” can be rephrased as “What is the effect of X on Y?”
• Have I taken a position that others might challenge or oppose? If your thesis simply states facts that no one would, or even could, disagree with, it’s possible that you are simply providing a summary, rather than making an argument.
• Is my thesis statement specific enough? Thesis statements that are too vague often do not have a strong argument. If your thesis contains words like “good” or “successful,” see if you could be more specific: why is something “good”; what specifically makes something “successful”?
• Does my thesis pass the “So what?” test? If a reader’s first response is likely to  be “So what?” then you need to clarify, to forge a relationship, or to connect to a larger issue.
• Does my essay support my thesis specifically and without wandering? If your thesis and the body of your essay do not seem to go together, one of them has to change. It’s okay to change your working thesis to reflect things you have figured out in the course of writing your paper. Remember, always reassess and revise your writing as necessary.
• Does my thesis pass the “how and why?” test? If a reader’s first response is “how?” or “why?” your thesis may be too open-ended and lack guidance for the reader. See what you can add to give the reader a better take on your position right from the beginning.

Suppose you are taking a course on contemporary communication, and the instructor hands out the following essay assignment: “Discuss the impact of social media on public awareness.” Looking back at your notes, you might start with this working thesis:

Social media impacts public awareness in both positive and negative ways.

You can use the questions above to help you revise this general statement into a stronger thesis.

• Do I answer the question? You can analyze this if you rephrase “discuss the impact” as “what is the impact?” This way, you can see that you’ve answered the question only very generally with the vague “positive and negative ways.”
• Have I taken a position that others might challenge or oppose? Not likely. Only people who maintain that social media has a solely positive or solely negative impact could disagree.
• Is my thesis statement specific enough? No. What are the positive effects? What are the negative effects?
• Does my thesis pass the “how and why?” test? No. Why are they positive? How are they positive? What are their causes? Why are they negative? How are they negative? What are their causes?
• Does my thesis pass the “So what?” test? No. Why should anyone care about the positive and/or negative impact of social media?

After thinking about your answers to these questions, you decide to focus on the one impact you feel strongly about and have strong evidence for:

Because not every voice on social media is reliable, people have become much more critical consumers of information, and thus, more informed voters.

This version is a much stronger thesis! It answers the question, takes a specific position that others can challenge, and it gives a sense of why it matters.

Let’s try another. Suppose your literature professor hands out the following assignment in a class on the American novel: Write an analysis of some aspect of Mark Twain’s novel Huckleberry Finn. “This will be easy,” you think. “I loved Huckleberry Finn!” You grab a pad of paper and write:

Mark Twain’s Huckleberry Finn is a great American novel.

You begin to analyze your thesis:

• Do I answer the question? No. The prompt asks you to analyze some aspect of the novel. Your working thesis is a statement of general appreciation for the entire novel.

Think about aspects of the novel that are important to its structure or meaning—for example, the role of storytelling, the contrasting scenes between the shore and the river, or the relationships between adults and children. Now you write:

In Huckleberry Finn, Mark Twain develops a contrast between life on the river and life on the shore.

• Do I answer the question? Yes!
• Have I taken a position that others might challenge or oppose? Not really. This contrast is well-known and accepted.
• Is my thesis statement specific enough? It’s getting there–you have highlighted an important aspect of the novel for investigation. However, it’s still not clear what your analysis will reveal.
• Does my thesis pass the “how and why?” test? Not yet. Compare scenes from the book and see what you discover. Free write, make lists, jot down Huck’s actions and reactions and anything else that seems interesting.
• Does my thesis pass the “So what?” test? What’s the point of this contrast? What does it signify?”

After examining the evidence and considering your own insights, you write:

Through its contrasting river and shore scenes, Twain’s Huckleberry Finn suggests that to find the true expression of American democratic ideals, one must leave “civilized” society and go back to nature.

This final thesis statement presents an interpretation of a literary work based on an analysis of its content. Of course, for the essay itself to be successful, you must now present evidence from the novel that will convince the reader of your interpretation.

Works consulted

We consulted these works while writing this handout. This is not a comprehensive list of resources on the handout’s topic, and we encourage you to do your own research to find additional publications. Please do not use this list as a model for the format of your own reference list, as it may not match the citation style you are using. For guidance on formatting citations, please see the UNC Libraries citation tutorial . We revise these tips periodically and welcome feedback.

Anson, Chris M., and Robert A. Schwegler. 2010. The Longman Handbook for Writers and Readers , 6th ed. New York: Longman.

Lunsford, Andrea A. 2015. The St. Martin’s Handbook , 8th ed. Boston: Bedford/St Martin’s.

Ramage, John D., John C. Bean, and June Johnson. 2018. The Allyn & Bacon Guide to Writing , 8th ed. New York: Pearson.

Ruszkiewicz, John J., Christy Friend, Daniel Seward, and Maxine Hairston. 2010. The Scott, Foresman Handbook for Writers , 9th ed. Boston: Pearson Education.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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The Wandering TRIP

• December 6, 2019

Steven Wood

• EXO IM , FCAU , Musings , RACE , TRIP

“Not all those who wander are lost.” JRR Tolkien 

One of the most frequent monsters in investors’ collection of nightmares is “thesis creep.” This is when the dynamics have changed to the point where you can barely recognize the original reasons why you invested in the company in the first place. We are witnessing thesis creep in TripAdvisor’s hotel business as we speak.

But as it happens, I also just finished listening to a terrific book, The Beginning of Infinity (thank you to Dan Roller at Maran Capital, if you’re reading this!) in which physicist David Deutsch explains that the fundamental way humans have grown is by generating ideas. Generating ideas doesn’t come from data analysis, it comes from creative, right-brain thinking. As psychologist Gary Klein has shown, insights come when we least expect it, but they come from original thought, not by analyzing data. And those original ideas need to be tested and criticized in order to be validated and improved upon. The beginning of “unlimited knowledge growth,” lies in the concept of fallibilism. Only through correcting misconceptions from the past and hoping to find and change mistaken ideas that no one today finds problematic, can we initiate the process of “unlimited knowledge growth,” as Deutsch writes.

Now, I completely understand that thesis creep could identify subjective bias in an investor, and thus investors are correct to throw a red flag whenever he or she realizes it’s happening. Yet, as psychology Professor Daniel Kahneman has advised, truth seekers who’ve developed a process and an algorithm to help eliminate noise have taken a major step at improving the signal of information coming to that otherwise inherently biased human. While algorithms can help filter noise, the real world is inherently more complex and demands flexibility in judgement. Thus, we’ve found the only way our framework has been useful to us was to demand consistent evolution.

Armed with a honed (and continuously improving) process to eliminate noise, we should be less prone to subjective bias. Our ranking framework has no input for cost basis or initial investment date. It doesn’t consider how well we’ve done. While we keep track of old assumptions, the only thing that matters is our assessment of the current opportunity. The only thing the algorithm cares about is, what is it worth now? It helps us eliminate errors of omission, which is another way of saying it lowers opportunity costs, while also helping us prioritize our time, efforts and portfolio weightings. And everything we own must be continuously justified against the opportunity set.

When Thesis Creep is a Good Thing

Deutsche has posited that the only way to generate knowledge is to continuously evolve one’s thinking. It’s the definition of “thesis creep.” Some of our most successful investments were opportunities where the thesis creeped materially throughout the holding period. When we invested in Fiat, the thesis was similar to our successful investment in Ford, whereby it would consolidate the platforms and engineering efforts with Chrysler, saving significantly on capital spending, and thereby improving capital returns. This surely happened, yet even more of the returns were generated by a secular shift to SUVs and trucks, which powered Jeep’s stellar global performance. Sergio Marchionne himself pivoted on his 4-year investment plans and lowered spending on Alfa Romeo and Fiat to reinvest further in Jeep and Ram. They were very wise moves that powered the stock significantly higher even while the stock’s valuation multiple shrank. Since we still own Fiat through our Exor position, the thesis has once again shifted as it embarks on another merger, this time with Peugeot, and looks set to offset macroeconomic weakness through material cost savings.

Similarly, our investment in Ferrari was based on the company being able to gradually increase production given stretched waiting lists and a more diverse product portfolio. Given incremental profit margins are north of 70%, this was going to be very material for the company’s profitability. It has been, but the real kicker in the past 18 months was the brilliant Marchionne plan to introduce the Icona series. These are re-imagined versions of the company’s past iconic cars. They will be a permanent part of the collection, which brings the singular profit tailwind of a limited edition series to the regular operating profit of the company. By far, Icona will be powering the next few years of results at Ferrari and has already powered the stock to a breathtaking valuation. Icona was a thesis creep.

We could go on and on with positive case studies of thesis creep, as well as a good number of negative case studies, but thesis creep also showed up in our most successful biotech positions, oil & gas positions and in Live Nation, another Liberty-controlled company. In fact, when the thesis changes in a positive way, the same care and attention should be paid to the development and the opportunity should be re-assessed. Although the stock has likely reacted positively, it could have significantly under-reacted to the new fundamental range of possibilities. That’s as clear a buying opportunity as we can hope to have.

If we’re going to hold a stock for multiple years, it’s hard to own something where the opportunities aren’t dynamically changing. But furthermore, we’ve witnessed over a shorter time horizon of just a year or two, it’s actually the developments which the market was least expecting that drive the stock returns. “Of course,” this is true, we would say. Yet, we must also be humble enough to admit, we’re probably not going to be able to legally know that development before everyone else. That means by definition your returns are going to be driven by unexpected events and a changing thesis.

Post Catalyst Investing

Many investors still follow a catalyst-based investing process, whereby they outline the reasons why they will own a stock over a specific time period. More thorough investors might even conduct a “pre-mortem” and imagine all the ways the stock could turn out to be a failure. As signposts are triggered, it catalyzes actions the investor has decided upon at the inception of his investment. The problem with this approach is that stock reactions to catalysts are becoming increasingly unpredictable. Counter-parties are now mostly robots or other investors with a 1-2 week time horizon. If the stock hasn’t positively reacted to your bullish catalyst when it gets announced, as we estimate is the case in a solid majority of catalysts in recent years, should you really sell it? That was clearly part of the original thesis, and when the dreaded thesis creep enters the scenario, most investors will exit a position. But if the developments are positively surprising you in an investment, and the stock fails to reflect it, is the right thing to sell it? We think the right approach is to re-assess the situation with a pair of fresh eyes. You may want to buy more rather than exit in this case of thesis creep.

Of course, we want the thesis-creeping developments to go in the positive direction, as opposed to trending downhill. In our framework, we assess the “preconditions,” that drive performance as the qualitative factors we look at: management, governance, customer satisfaction, employee engagement, among many others. These are the factors that drive performance to the top or bottom end of the range of possibilities. We are unapologetic about being post-catalyst investors, though of course, we can’t help but do pre-mortems and foresee a roadmap of triggers where we think our version of reality will prove the markets’ incorrect and lead to positive or negative surprises.

My friend Chris Mayer recently used David Deutsche’s book to extrapolate another investment lesson: good management teams with significant skin in the game have a way of overcoming the difficulties that are presented to them. They solve problems so the investor doesn’t have to worry about it. In his recent article ( click here to read it ), Chris quoted a pithy answer Warren Buffet made to a question about how closely he follows Apple. “Well if you have to closely follow a company you shouldn’t own it!” Buffett has always demanded management teams with skin in the game and a natural passion for overcoming the problems presented to them.

Another good friend, Bill Carey at Cortland Associates, joked about the perils of thesis creep in saying, “First it’s a growth stock, then it becomes a GARP stock, then it becomes a value stock, then it becomes a turnaround, and then finally it ends with a restructuring story. There’s always a reason to justify owning something.” Bill has avoided thesis creep his entire successful career by lowering the number of variables that drive the business models he invests in. He seeks simplicity, low capital intensity, low labor intensity, and generally less stakeholders that can damage the thesis. A lower concentration of these essential corporate elements reduces the risks that any of the stakeholders’ decisions can change the thesis materially.

That means Bill has done incredibly well by combining both a valuation discipline with business models today that are universally acknowledged to be “high quality,” such as major internet properties, exchanges, payments processors and database companies. The only problem is that while those were viewed as “boring” stocks for much of his career, professional investors have herded into them over the past few years. While many of these stocks seem boring and without a “catalyst,” the herd has correctly realized that the risks of the thesis changing in these companies over time is low. While they’re not risk-free, investors have pushed the earnings yields of these companies close to the risk-free rate of today: essentially nothing. I’ve tried to help Bill, in vain, find opportunities elsewhere, as many of his past favorite positions have also reached breathtaking valuations. It’s likely he’s going to have to familiarize himself better with thesis creep over the next decade.

The wandering TRIP

TripAdvisor doesn’t fit that “quality” mold of having very few thesis-changing risks. While it has hundreds of millions of people who use the site, the monetization channels have historically been very concentrated to Expedia and Booking, and the company has the chronic, now acute, Google problem. One decision by one actor (in this case, Google) can lead to thesis creep. And while we’ve never assumed hotels would be a great business for TripAdvisor except in our most extreme bullish scenarios (<10% probability), we hadn’t anticipated it could lose 15-17% of its business in a shorter time frame.

Our approach to a position that is failing to launch or is performing contrary to our positively-skewed range of outcomes is to throw out all of our old assumptions. We have to re-underwrite the investment with a completely fresh set of eyes and assumptions. Chris has taken time to come up with his own assumptions on TripAdvisor, and while they diverge from my assumptions from earlier this year, we both ended up at the same outcome a couple of weeks ago: the company can digest “ The Google Squeeze ,” and still capitalize on the very important and significant addressable markets of Experiences and Dining in addition to the advertising monetization potential.

As we detailed in a new research note to our investors this morning , Google has moved to aggressively eliminate unpaid links from its hotel search results pages, despite nearly half of this traffic including the word “TripAdvisor” in it. We could hardly characterize this as user-friendly and it risks turning the company’s valuable search tool into the yellow pages. Yet, we now assume that up to 16% of the company’s revenue (the total revenue generated by this free traffic) could be eliminated over the next few years. We had previously assumed this SEO traffic was defensive, and now we only believe half is. This development has resulted in a creeping thesis at TripAdvisor.

But as opposed to mindlessly selling something due to “thesis creep,” we decided to purchase more shares after we completely re-assessed the situation. Half of the company’s revenue is growing north of 25% going forward, which combined with cost cutting plans, allows the company to continue growing profitability much more quickly than consensus estimates. The management of the company over the next few years will determine whether or not this was a good move. The future is in the hands of a very capable board and a very entrepreneurial CEO. TripAdvisor CEO Steve Kauffer has a great reputation in the travel industry, but perhaps not on Wall Street. True greatness is born of difficult times, so the next couple of years will determine whether his travel industry or Wall Street reputation survives.

This Process Has Already Worked

At the beginning of the year, we wrote “ Boiled Frog Prevention ,” in which we talked about our then most recent mistake, Flybe. The opportunity had been a slowly deteriorating situation where dramatic downside deviations had emerged. With the emergence of Brexit, we had focused on the passenger weakness and figured it was digestible. Instead, we should have focused on the fundamentals completely out of the company’s control: foreign exchange. The company’s cost base heavily skewed to US dollars but it could only sell tickets in pounds. A most material development happened over our holding period, but we under-reacted to the development. This led to a process improvement at GreenWood whereby a new set of eyes must completely throw out the old assumptions on a stock if it fails to perform in line with prior assumptions.

As it happened, we had a new set of eyes join the company just months before, and Chris re-underwrote Flybe, Telecom Italia, and Piaggio. Our mutual conclusion from that exercise was to sell Flybe, locking in a ~50% loss rather than the 99% loss that materialized over the next couple of months, continue to hold Telecom Italia, and actually buy more of Piaggio. All three decisions have turned out to either add alpha for us this year, or save us from a worse loss. Prior to Chris re-underwriting TripAdvisor a few weeks ago, he re-underwrote our coinvestment this summer. The process only reinforced our conviction in the opportunity and allowed us to buy more before we became restricted. It’s still early days, but it turned out to be the exact right decision. However we admit, the thesis didn’t really change in all of these scenarios, it was more a “failure to launch.”

In trying to eliminate human bias from decision making, many people find it easier to rely on rules of thumb or checklists. They help investors avoid past mistakes when they overlooked something material. We’re human and have flaws. Checklists won’t let you overlook anything material as, can often happen. Yet, as popularized by Atul Gawande, checklists are designed to work even when the pilot or nurse doesn’t have their full faculties present. It should work even when they are exhausted from working over 12 hours. Because the downside of their mistakes have life-changing consequences.

Investing is not an unconscious process, it’s a highly conscious process and should be the start of “unlimited knowledge growth,” as David Deutsche puts it. It should be one where we constantly challenge assumptions, particularly when our views diverge from Mr. Market’s. We call this the “expectations gap,” and have focused on building out this behavioral aspect of our ranking framework. Our greatest mistake this year was not being aggressive enough on position sizing even when this expectations gap shrank in TripAdvisor and a couple other positions. We cut TRIP in half this summer, but we should have clearly cut it further.

Could we suggest a new way to view thesis creep?

Perhaps we let it trigger a complete re-evaluation of the opportunity on a go-forward and unbiased basis rather than causing us to run for the hills, as most other well-trained investors do. And we should do this re-evaluation when both a positive thesis creep occurs as well as the negative ones. The conclusions with a fresh pair of eyes may surprise you. The minute that you can’t stand to look at something is usually the moment every other investor can’t stand it either and is capitulating. Do you really want to be that guy? We’d rather be on the other side of that trade in the price-agnostic selling.

We realize this view may be controversial and you may have strong opinions against it. We’d love to hear from you if you do. We’re more concerned with being right than sounding right. In fact, by proving us wrong, you’ll be helping us creep another thesis!

Disclaimer:

This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinions expressed constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the securities or assets mentioned, or to invest in any investment product or strategy related to such securities or assets. It is not intended to provide personal investment advice, and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any person or entity that may receive this article. Persons reading this article should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or assets discussed in this article. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research, and the information used in such process was obtained from publicly available sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but such reliability is not guaranteed. Investment accounts managed by GreenWood Investors LLC and its affiliates may have a position in the securities or assets discussed in this article. GreenWood Investors LLC may re-evaluate its holdings in such positions and sell or cover certain positions without notice. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of GreenWood Investors LLC.

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Creep Deformation

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• Zbigniew L. Kowalewski 3 &
• Aneta Ustrzycka 3  

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Creep ; Creep rupture ; Damage ; Lifetime ; Viscoplastic flow

The time-dependent plastic flow of materials under the conditions of constant load or stress is commonly called as creep. It takes place under long-term exposure to high levels of stress that are typically below the yield point of the material. Creep is more severe in materials that are subjected to elevated temperature for long periods, and near melting point. It always becomes faster with temperature increase (Kachanov 1958 ; Rabotnov 1969 ).

The rate of this deformation is a function of the material properties, time, temperature, and the applied structural load. Depending on the magnitude of the applied stress and its duration, the deformation may become so large that a component can no longer perform its function. Creep is usually of concern to engineers and metallurgists when evaluating components that operate under high stresses or high temperatures. The temperature range in which creep deformation may...

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Department of Experimental Mechanics, Institute of Fundamental Technological Research, Warsaw, Poland

Zbigniew L. Kowalewski & Aneta Ustrzycka

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Correspondence to Zbigniew L. Kowalewski .

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Lehrstuhl Technische Mechanik, Institut für Mechanik, Fakultät für Maschinenbau, Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Magdeburg, Germany

Holm Altenbach

Fakultät für Maschinenbau, Esslingen University of Applied Sciences, Esslingen, Germany

Andreas Öchsner

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Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Institute of Applied Mechanics, Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland

Błażej Skoczeń

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Kowalewski, Z.L., Ustrzycka, A. (2020). Creep Deformation. In: Altenbach, H., Öchsner, A. (eds) Encyclopedia of Continuum Mechanics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-55771-6_157

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Definition of creep verb from the Oxford Advanced American Dictionary

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• 3 [ intransitive ] (+ adv./prep.) to move or develop very slowly Her arms crept around his neck. A slight feeling of suspicion crept over me.
• 4 [ intransitive ] (+ adv./prep.) ( of plants ) to grow along the ground or up walls using long stems or roots see creeper

Other results

• make your flesh crawl/creep

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